|
Market Analysis |
|
Reasons for Optimism: |
Home sales stabilized first, prices followed
(Following charge is an extract from Schwab Market Perspective)
Housing hits a bottom according to MarketWatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-hits-a-bottom-2009-08-16
(Source: NYTIMES)
Recovery Signs in Housing Market Stir Some Hope (note SF mentioned with price increase):
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/29/business/economy/29housing.html?ref=business
For more people, scales tip toward buying a home:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/07/21/national/a131008D20.DTL
San Francisco Bay Area home sales up 20% in June:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bayarea-homes17-2009jul17,0,6871020.story
US Home Prices Decline Moderately:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/01/business/economy/01econ.html?ref=business
According to Business Week, demand is stabilizing, though still with headwinds:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_23/b4134010695906.htm
"Indicators up, so downturn may be easing" reported on 5/30/09:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/05/30/BUV917TGIM.DTL&type=business
"Where Home Prices Crashed Early, Signs of a Rebound" Is this what a bottom looks like?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/05/business/economy/05turnaround.html?_r=1&hp
"Falling prices start to slow" according to SFGate report:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/16/BUH9173MFJ.DTL
Despite a tattered economy and grim real estate market, every month more than 5,000 people buy a house in the Bay Area. according to SFGate report on 3/29/09:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/03/29/MN3K16M9RT.DTL&type=realestate
Channel 5 reported on 3/11/09 a great rebound in SF including a house with 42 offers. Check the video:
http://cbs5.com/video/?id=47401@kpix.dayport.com
Market Watch gives 5 reasons to buy now:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/five-reasons-buying-house-now/story.aspx?guid={01DA1B93-91D1-49E4-A1B1-0ACA9CE66FF4

Housing Market's Upside: Affordability:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/07/business/economy/07charts.html?ref=business
This latest action reflects a commitment of US Government to stabilize the Housing market here, in turn the economy too.:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/05/business/05housing.html?ref=business
"U.S. Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan on Monday, 3/2/09, questioned if an accounting rule to determine future losses on loans during a long period of benign economic conditions made the downturn worse for banks." reported by Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSWEQ00073120090302
"It becomes potentially even more important that the Fed not allow any hard-fought gains in the housing arena to be lost when you consider the glimmers of hope we've see as of late. We got some surprising data recently as it showed existing home sales improved, while prices continue to decline—making housing more affordable." extract from Schwab Market Perspective on 2/20/09.
A major step towards stabilizing the housing market by President Obama's Plan announcd on 2/17/09:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/19/business/19housing.html?_r=1&hp
The proposal in this news report, if passed, would stabalize the housing market and might even promote price increases in certain markets, depending on supply and demand of each real estate market. Please remember there is no single national real estate market which is actually composed of many, many local markets. Statistics are for a national averages and others. Each house and each local area are unique.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/05/us/politics/05stimulus.html?_r=1&hp
The comprehensive plan to be worked out might have another positive impact on the housing market. As noticed in the market and from the article, the Fed's action late last year already stimulated more sales with low mortgage interest ratge.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/29/business/economy/29bailout.html?ref=business
Dec 08 existing homes sales rose 6.5% from Nov 08, reported in LATimes 1/26/09. Have we reached the bottom of this down cycle in real estate? Might be, or might be one of the bottoms, or an extended bottom? If you want more up to date and more analysis regarding home buying, come to our Buyer Advantage Workshop.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes27-2009jan27,0,6833991.story
November 2008 low vs. bottoms of 1938 and 1974
3/31/38 bottom
12/6/74 bottom
11/20/08 low
Preceding cyclical bear market
Dow Jones Industrial Average % decline
– 49%
– 45%
– 47%
Years
1.1
1.9
1.1
Concurrent secular bear market
Years from start
9
9
9
Years to end
4
8
?
Concurrent recession
Months from start
10
12
11
Months to end
3
4
?
Subsequent advance to high*
Percent gain
60%
51%
?
Months
7.5
7.5
?
Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc. *High preceding decline of at least – 10%.
Falling mortgage rates spark refinancings Housing affordability spiking to 15-year high
Source: FactSet, as of January 2, 2008. Source: FactSet, as of November 30, 2008
.
|
Above charts are extracted from Schwab's report "Happy New Year" May Be True in 2009? by Liz Sonders on 1/09/09: |