Outlook

 Market Analysis
This analysis and/or compilation of analyses by various experts are made available to share out understanding of how the real estate market will most likely unfold later on a national scale or regional level (forest). There is no one single national real estate market. There are many local real estate markets(trees), many different trees which are affected to a certain extent by the “forest(s)”. In addition, any major political or government intervention can and will turn any of the predictions by these experts irrlevant. 

 Reasons for Optimism:

We believe that San Francisco and Peninsula Area will continue to fare better than most areas of the State in real estate. However, in order to effectively take the best advantage of it, please join us in our free consumer-oriented workshops,
Buyer Advantage Workshop and Advanced Foreclosure Seminar.
In any market, Seller's or Buyer's market, our Workshop/Seminars promote caution, systematic and wise investments.
Following articles represent the professional opinions of these respective authors, not necessarily ours. We selected them for our viewers at various times to highlight some significance of these professional opinions. These opinions will best be utilized in conjunction with our workshops.

Home sales stabilized first, prices followed
(Following charge is an extract from Schwab Market Perspective)

Housing hits a bottom according to MarketWatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-hits-a-bottom-2009-08-16

 
(Source: NYTIMES)
Recovery Signs in Housing Market Stir Some Hope (
note SF mentioned with price increase):
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/29/business/economy/29housing.html?ref=business

For more people, scales tip toward buying a home:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/07/21/national/a131008D20.DTL
San Francisco Bay Area home sales up 20% in June:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bayarea-homes17-2009jul17,0,6871020.story

US Home Prices Decline Moderately:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/01/business/economy/01econ.html?ref=business

According to Business Week, demand is stabilizing, though still with headwinds:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_23/b4134010695906.htm

"Indicators up, so downturn may be easing" reported on 5/30/09:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/05/30/BUV917TGIM.DTL&type=business

"Where Home Prices Crashed Early, Signs of a Rebound" Is this what a bottom looks like?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/05/business/economy/05turnaround.html?_r=1&hp
"Falling prices start to slow" according to SFGate report:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/16/BUH9173MFJ.DTL

Despite a tattered economy and grim real estate market, every month more than 5,000 people buy a house in the Bay Area. according to SFGate report on 3/29/09:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/03/29/MN3K16M9RT.DTL&type=realestate
Channel 5 reported on 3/11/09 a great rebound in SF including a house with 42 offers. Check the video:
http://cbs5.com/video/?id=47401@kpix.dayport.com
Market Watch gives 5 reasons to buy now:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/five-reasons-buying-house-now/story.aspx?guid={01DA1B93-91D1-49E4-A1B1-0ACA9CE66FF4


Housing Prices as a Multiple of per Capita Income
Housing Market's Upside: Affordability:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/07/business/economy/07charts.html?ref=business
This latest action reflects a commitment of US Government to stabilize the Housing market here, in turn the economy too.:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/05/business/05housing.html?ref=business
"
U.S. Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan on Monday, 3/2/09, questioned if an accounting rule to determine future losses on loans during a long period of benign economic conditions made the downturn worse for banks." reported  by Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSWEQ00073120090302

"It becomes potentially even more important that the Fed not allow any hard-fought gains in the housing arena to be lost when you consider the glimmers of hope we've see as of late. We got some surprising data recently as it showed existing home sales improved, while prices continue to decline—making housing more affordable." extract from Schwab Market Perspective on 2/20/09.

chart: Glimmer of hope?

A major step towards stabilizing the housing market by President Obama's Plan announcd on 2/17/09:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/19/business/19housing.html?_r=1&hp
The proposal in this news report, if passed, would stabalize the housing market and might even promote price increases in certain markets, depending on supply and demand of each real estate market. Please remember there is no single national real estate market which is actually composed of many, many local markets.  Statistics are for a national averages and others. Each house and each local area are unique.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/05/us/politics/05stimulus.html?_r=1&hp
The comprehensive plan to be worked out might have another positive impact on the housing market. As noticed in the market and from the article, the Fed's action late last year already stimulated more sales with low mortgage interest ratge.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/29/business/economy/29bailout.html?ref=business
Dec 08 existing homes sales rose 6.5% from Nov 08, reported in LATimes 1/26/09. Have we reached the bottom of this down cycle in real estate? Might be, or might be one of the bottoms, or an extended bottom? If you want more up to date and more analysis regarding home buying, come to our Buyer Advantage Workshop.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes27-2009jan27,0,6833991.story

November 2008 low vs. bottoms of 1938 and 1974
  3/31/38 bottom 12/6/74 bottom 11/20/08 low
Preceding cyclical bear market
Dow Jones Industrial Average % decline – 49% – 45% – 47%
Years 1.1 1.9 1.1
Concurrent secular bear market
Years from start 9 9 9
Years to end 4 8 ?
Concurrent recession
Months from start 10 12 11
Months to end 3 4 ?
Subsequent advance to high*
Percent gain 60% 51% ?
Months 7.5 7.5 ?
Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc. *High preceding decline of at least – 10%.


Falling mortgage rates spark refinancings                                                                                          Housing affordability spiking to 15-year high

Chart: Falling mortgage rates spark refinancings         Chart: Housing affordability spiking to 15-year high
Source: FactSet, as of January 2, 2008.                                                                                                                 Source: FactSet, as of November 30, 2008

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Above charts are extracted from Schwab's report "Happy New Year" May Be True in 2009? by Liz Sonders on 1/09/09:
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/research_strategies/market_insight/todays_market/recent_commentary/happy_new_year_may_be_true_in_2009.html

 

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