Reasons for Optimism: |
"All three reports tend to indicate that we're bottoming out but that there is no real end in sight and that's what I think the market has to get used to," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research. This appears in SFGate on 8/21/08:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/08/19/financial/f035920D61.DTL
"Twice as many in state can now afford a home" reported in SFGate on 8/20/08. This is good news as the market is getting more stabilized.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/19/BUG312E80O.DTL
"Mortgage market weathers storms." reported on 7/20/08 in SFGate. Details below:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/20/BU3411RIAP.DTL
"Bottom's Up: This Real Estate Rout May be Short Lived." reported by Barron's on 7/14/08. Barron's might be wrong, but it pointed out some evidences to support it:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121581623724947273.html?mod=googlenews_barrons&page=sp
"No sign of slump in SF rental market", "Healthy economy a straw" reported in SFGate on 7/13/08. The slow-down of housing market in SF has been mild compared to other parts of State and Nation. As rent cost goes up fast in SF, it will meet a point soon that the renters of would-be buyers will come out fast, because "job creation in SF is the second highest in the county" quoted in the report from Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley. At that time, multiple offers on a single property, that still exist today, will go up and make the market hard on buyers.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/13/RECT11MC47.DTL&tsp=1
We've been reporting that SF & Peninsula fares and will fare better than a lot of places. In today's AOL (07/09/08), it reported an analysis on Commute Cost vs Housing Cost. We're located between 2 major employment centers with tourism, biotech and high tech industries holding very well:
http://realestate.aol.com/article/news/_a/commute-cost-vs-housing-cost/20080626120409990001?ncid=AOLCOMMre00DYNLprim0001&icid=200100397x1205497181x1200250282
We've been reporting optimism for San Francisco and surrounding areas for a long time, as you can go back to all the reports in this page. Again, AOL on 6/30/08 reported a Harvard study predicting a housing recovery fueled by immigrants over the horizon. The areas here are a magnet for immigrants not just from other countries, but also from other states.
http://realestate.aol.com/article/_a/over-the-horizon-a-housing-recovery/20080626120409990001?ncid=AOLCOMMre00DYNLprim0001&icid=200100397x1204780037x1200229763
"Some glimmers of hope are on the horizaon..." reported by Carolyn Said in SFGate on 6/27/08:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/06/27/BUC311FT9F.DTL
From this news article in SFGate on 6-25-08, we can tell how the local market by gauging the number of foreclosure homes in that market. Almost every city has foreclosure homes. Even during a seller's market, there were foreclosure homes. The real question is: "How many?"
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2008/06/25/MNJH11E8UE.DTL
Please check the Market Analysis - a special June edition on www.MyNextAdobe.com home page for our 6/23/08 analysis.
May sales went down on the heels of a "recovery" April, month-to-month fluctuations are normal, let's see in the next few months if there is any pattern developed. The job market as reported is negative. The glimmer of hope is that SF City (& Silicon Valley) has been the brightest spot for CA state:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2008/06/20/MNUO11CKEV.DTL
"NAR: US pending home sales move higher in April" reported on 6/9/08 in Examiner indicates some sign of improvement in housing market. It's also an indication that prices have fallen low enough to pre-bubble times to be good enough a buy for many buyers and investors. Details here:
http://www.examiner.com/a-1432437~NAR__US_pending_home_sales_move_higher_in_April.html
Again, SF City eschoes on 6/3/08 in SF Chronicle the same result in local economy, especially tourism as San Mateo a few days ago & reported here right below this:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/06/03/BAHE11206K.DTL
"County a hot spot for travelers". San Mateo County, according to a report on 5/30/08 in Examiner, has enjoyed an increase of tourism business from 1Q 07 to 1Q 08, which helps the local economy & indirectly real estate market here. This echoes the reports we posted early this year on this website. (Please scroll down to see: "Upbeat SF Tourism Outlook" on 2/24/08 & "It's no surprise that SF is 1 of top 10 Fastest-Growing Metros" on 2/11/08. For details of Examiner's report:
http://www.examiner.com/a-1415624~County_a_hot_spot_for_travelers.html
By the numbers Tourism in San Mateo County is on the rise, thanks in part to a weak dollar. 4 percent: Rise in hotel occupancy rates in Jan-March 2008 compared with Jan.-March 2007 7 percent: Rise in average hotel daily rate in Jan-March 2008 compared with Jan.-March 2007 $2 billion: Revenue generated by tourism to county economy $22.5 million: Hotel tax generated in from 2007-08 $281: Amount a tourist spends per day in county 30 percent: Share of a restaurant’s business from tourists 774,878: International travelers at SFO in March 2008 6.2 percent: Rise in international travelers at SFO from March 2007 to March 2008 Source: SFO, San Mateo County Convention and Visitors Bureau & SF Exmainer |
Back in January 08, we highlighted the significance of many local real estate markets, instead of a single national real estate market, for our viewers to consider in their investment decision. (Please scroll down to that time frame in this page for the report.) Now, on 5/22/08, we have another report in SF Chronicle by K. Pender to echo the same findings:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/05/21/BUSM10QERD.DTL
"More Californias can afford entry-level homes than last year." reported on 5/20/08 in Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal. Details here:
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2008/05/19/daily32.html
A bounce in April sales in SoCal; weakness in L.A. reported in LA Times on 5/19/08. Is it a short-term incidence, a sign of slow rebound, or at least a halt of a downward spiral? Please check the details of the report and make your conclusion.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/05/a-bounce-in-apr.html
"Hot Market: SE Michigan Surpassess the Psychological Pricing Barrier" reported by M. Antohony Carr on Yahoo Real Estate News on 5/16/08, said that "... pending sales - the number of contracts written in any given 30 day period are on the rise in cities and regions where prices have hit what we call the "psychological pricing barrier." For details, please go to:
http://realestate.yahoo.com/info/news/hot-market-se-michigan-surpasses-the-psychological-pricing-barrier
Is it a sign of one of the bottoms or the bottom? Whatever you decide, it's a positive sign.
Foreward-looking "SF picked a local firm to install solar power system" reported on 5/16/08 in SF Chronicle. This is to keep jobs growing locally as well as improving the quality of life in SF, thereby keeping the local economy vibrant now and in the long-term as an attractive place for living and working. The report:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/05/16/BUND10N4TL.DTL
"Real Estate Outlook: Housing Better than Some Reports Indicate." according to Kenneth Harney on Realty Times:
http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20080306_realestateoutlook.htm
Duration! Duration! Duration! are just as important as Location! Location! Location!
We promote long-term investment, not flipping, in real estate. Take a look:
Prices for existing single-family homes in the Bay Area are down in all counties except San Francisco the past year. Prices are still up in most counties the past four years and in all nine counties the past eight years.
| County | Price March 2008 | 1-year change | 4-year change | 8-year change |
| Alameda | $501,000 | -20.7% | 6.6% | 67.0% |
| Contra Costa | 409,000 | -33.4 | -2.6 | 66.9 |
| Marin | 862,500 | -10.6 | 15.0 | 56.5 |
| Napa | 457,250 | -20.5 | -4.7 | 77.6 |
| Santa Clara | 684,500 | -9.3 | 21.3 | 48.8 |
| San Francisco | 826,500 | 0.4 | 27.2 | 94.0 |
| San Mateo | 760,000 | -5.7 | 16.9 | 52.0 |
| Solano | 330,000 | -24.8 | 0.0 | 91.9 |
| Sonoma | 425,000 | -22.4 | -2.0 | 59.8 |
| Bay Area | 549,000 | -20.4 | 9.8 | 59.6 |
Source: DataQuick
For details of the article on above subject, please check SF Chronicle report on 5/8/08:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/05/07/BUNO10I2QV.DTL
"As ARMs reset, little of the expected chaos is ocming to fruition.: reported by SF Chronicle on 4/27/08. How will the market fare next year or few years? We can get some glimpse of it from the report: |
- "March job figures confirm recession to many." reported on 4/5/08 in SF Chronicle. This can be interpreted that we've hit "bottoms", if not the bottom. Unless we go to depression, recession is the lowest point. For more ideas, our HomeBuyer Advantage Workshop will be another place that we will address this. In the meantime, check the Chronicle report on 4/5/08: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/04/MN3P1005OK.DTL Every part the Bay Area saw at least mild monthly employment gains in February 2008, but the results were mixed compared with last year.
Source: California Employment Development Department |
- Location, Location, Location are still the reasons for selecting your To see how and why these still are the reasons and why S.F. bucks http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/g/a/2008/03/07/carollloyd.DTL and the thinking within the bullish tourism industry is that we will http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/22/BUCAV6LK0.DTL
- Time to Purchase a House? posted on Jan 28, 2008: (copy & paste the following into your browser) http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/your-money/2008/1/28/time-to-purchase-a-house.html He continued, "in the throes of double downswing". For details, please see his full story by click and paste the following - "There is no single National Real Estate Market." said Carole Rodoni, a local real estate consultant, former President of major Bay Area real estate companies. Real estate is composed of many discreet, distinct local real estate markets. Some homes have bucked the "national" trend. Please check out what AOL showed us on 1/19/08. 2008 on "New real estate year starts with a tale of San Francisco's two cities" to confirm many local real estate markets in SF: - It's no surprise that SF is 1 of top 10 Fastest-Growing Metros. Please check out Forbes report posted on AOL on Feb 11, '08: http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/30/economy-cities-alabama-biz-cx_bw_0130econcities_slide_6.html?thisSpeed=15000 and home values will be relatively more stable than others. - Economic stimulus a big break for homebuyers. Please check out Carolyn Said's article in SF Chronicle on Jan 25, '08: http://www.trulia.com/property/39911218-193-Huntington-Dr-Daly-City-CA This stimulus package will mean lower loan cost to Bay Area buyers take maximum advantage of the stimulus package. - San Francisco & San Jose are two of the worst cities, nationwide, for renters. Rent is expected to raised much higher than inflation. This helps make home purchases a better alternative for first-time buyers. For details of the report posted online 2/09/2008 by AOL, please copy and paste the followings into your browser: - More REAL qualified buyers in % terms are available. Falling Prices enable REAL first-time buyers to find affordable homes. They don’t have to compete with speculators However, values of properties in have basic long-term, real values. The fact that these two areas are doing better than other areas in our current down turn, is a testimony to the real values here. There were also fewer speculative purchases in these areas than others too. Home Buyer Advantage Seminars. - Each buyer has her(his) personal reasons to buy, not by an "herd" feeling which can be less beneficial than personal reasons. Building wealth is a long-term personal goal. - Balanced Market offers fair negotiation to both Buyers and Sellers, and facilitates trade-up buyer-homeowners to move in a more orderly fashion, less stress but more quality life, not for speculative investments. There are more choices for buyers now than before. - Great Opportunities for REAL investors or owners, not speculators. Speculation has contributed to the current real estate market problem. Our Foreclosure Seminars promote investments, not speculation. |
